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The hurricane, now a Category 1, is tracking around 100 miles west of Savannah, Georgia and is expected to pass through the Charleston area of South Carolina.
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The figure – which is not a loss estimate – would be consistent with early views of a sub-$10bn insured loss.
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The storm will weaken further, but remain a hurricane as it passes through Georgia and the Carolinas.
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The broker said that the Big Bend region towards which the storm is heading has a low exposure density.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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Parts of Tampa, as well as Georgia and the Carolinas, now face dangerous conditions.
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“The Tampa Bay scenario of major hurricanes is mainly off the table at this point”, according to the report.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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The storm is set to become an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” by landfall on Wednesday.
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The storm is now forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. This morning’s advisory update had estimated that Idalia would reach major hurricane status by early Wednesday.
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A major hurricane in any section of Florida that extends into the Southeast states is likely a “multi-billion-dollar” insurance industry event, according to the broker.
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The estimate includes privately insured damage to residential, commercial and industrial property, as well as automobiles. Boats, offshore properties and NFIP losses were excluded.