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Super Typhoon Saola has the potential to be one of the five largest typhoons to land in Guangdong in over 70 years, according to reports.
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Hurricane Idalia is still live, but the storm’s track reassured market participants that it will be a relatively minor loss, although one potential wild card is the damage it will cause to Georgia and South Carolina.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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The storm is now forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night. This morning’s advisory update had estimated that Idalia would reach major hurricane status by early Wednesday.
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A major hurricane in any section of Florida that extends into the Southeast states is likely a “multi-billion-dollar” insurance industry event, according to the broker.
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The estimate includes privately insured damage to residential, commercial and industrial property, as well as automobiles. Boats, offshore properties and NFIP losses were excluded.
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Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.
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The estimate is based on the impact to approximately 200 structures where RLI provided primarily homeowners’ insurance.
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However minor an irritant these losses are for global carriers, their impact is likely to have an outsized influence on the narrative heading into the 1 January renewals.
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Earlier this afternoon, San Diego County issued a tropical storm warning related to Hilary – the first in its history.
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The development in reconstruction costs and contingent BI claims may put the ultimate sum beyond current estimates.